Hello chart Watchers and welcome to this Thursday October 25th market watchers live show with your host Tom Boley and Aaron swindlin for those of you joining us for the first time today welcome to the show and for our regulars welcome back well we are trying to recover off of yesterday’s steep losses in the afternoon today we’ve got the.
Dow Jones Industrial Average up 345 points the S&P 500 up 43 the Nasdaq up 180 points and.
The russell 2000 up 30 10-year Treasury yield continues to hold support around 3.
Little more than one basis point today to 3.
14 percent volatility after closing above 25 in clearing the.
Prior high closed in October we are backing off on the VIX today it is.
Down almost 9% leading the market to the upsides exactly what you want to see technology up nearly three percent you can see communication services up nearly three percent discretionary stocks.
Also up two and change in terms of present Microsoft good report out we’ll talk about that in.
A bit Microsoft leading some of the software stocks a little higher today utility is struggling utilities course have been moving higher as the market has turned more fearful as it is a defensive group but with today’s action moving Mort back toward the aggressive areas we do see the defensive utilities taking it on the chin a bit earnings were not great everywhere aligned technology LA or excuse me al GN stock down.
67 dollars right now to 223 dollars we’ll talk about this report in a bit but they were I was very disappointing to say the least Aaron I’d like to say the volatile settling down but that would be a pretty big.
Error no I don’t think it’s settled down and you know we are seeing some strength in those areas we want.
To see as far as sector rotation but you know it’s a snap back in my opinion I think we still have more downside to go I agree I think that this is you know having movement.
Back into aggressive areas for one morning is.
Not going to solve all the technical woes that the market has.
Right now but it’s a step and I think there’s probably a lot of folks breathing a sigh of relief today as the market.
Bounces but say I’m just not sure.
It holds we’re gonna wait to see and we got some big earnings reports coming up after.
The bell and we’ll talk about that in a bit but before we get into any of that I do.
Want to bring in dan russo who’s our special guest today dan how are you doing this morning I’m doing well Tom how are you hey Erin how are you great I’m doing pretty well I mean it’s been a crazy market and I’ve been a little bit of a tough month I was just reading we went from a string of days without a 1% close for the S&P and now it seems like almost.
A daily occurrence yep and when you get the volatility index you know the VIX the Vixen that was up there in the stratosphere.
Where we’ve been of late this is the norm I would not be expecting you know 50 point days on the Dow or I imagine we’re gonna continue to have some of these swings for quite a while but we’ll see anyhow that’s right.
Yeah I know you’ve got a bunch to share with everybody we’re gonna bring you back in here in about 15 minutes to do just that I look forward to your presentation so hang in there with us thanks looking forward to it all right Erin what we got today all right.
Well this week is still finishing out tomorrow Mary Ellen will be here with what’s hot what’s not next week on Tuesday we’ll get.
To see your November seasonality report dr. elder is gonna join us on Wednesday can’t wait to talk to him again was.
Great to see him at shark con but today what are we doing for today dan russo whom we just introduced from.
Jaqen analytics is here 10 and 10 fill.
66 will be our first symbol PS XP and then we’re gonna finish it off with what would you do and I encourage you to go.
The poll that is already there because that is going to be the subject of what would you do so we’ll see all right Tom Technical news headlines I.
Think there’s a lot going on out there yeah there’s.
Lots of news there’s lots of economic news there’s lots of earnings news lots of volatility we got a lot going on in the market right.
Now let’s start with the economic reports initial jobless claims came out this morning two hundred fifteen thousand just slightly above the two hundred and twelve thousand expected then we had September durable goods which rose eight tenths of one.
Percent versus the minus one and a half percent that the market was expecting this.
To be extremely volatile though so I think it’s better to look at it over a longer term period than month-to-month September durable goods X transports so we strip out the transportation area it is it.
Rose one tenth of one percent versus the anticipated four tenths of one percent and then finally housing got some good news today for once September pending home sales came out rose five tenths of one percent versus flat expectations so pretty good news there let’s take a look at what’s going.
On in the bond market as a result of this economic news you can see the 10-year Treasury owned as I mention the top of the show up about one basis point so it’s sitting at about three point one four percent I know sometimes I give you a short-term view of this ten-year Treasury but I think if we take a look at a year you can see the two tops that came in at about three point one.
Three point one one percent.
Clear breakout and continued moved to the upside so when you do pull back ta 101 broken resistance become support so that’s what we’re looking for here we’ll see if we continue to hold around three point one one 3.
To make another push back up toward that three and a quarter level which was the high earlier in October one.
Thing I find very interesting all the market quote-unquote experts that said the higher interest rates were driving the market lower I haven’t really heard much about that now that the rates have been coming down and the markets still going down I don’t think it had anything do really with the rates going up we’ll.
Certainly see over time but my opinion it was just simply the market was stretched looking for a pullback I think the trade.
Fears personally are more important to what’s going on the market than the short-term rates and the movement in the ten-year Treasury yield began just my opinion all right we got a number of earnings reports out so let’s go ahead and take a look at some of those.
Today we also had several out last night so this will be combination of the two but we do have we Microsoft out last night they blew away their earnings estimates 114 vs. 96 and when you look down the list you can see one really stands out to me is Tesla two dollar and ninety cent profit Elon Musk in the news for lots of crazy things but he did say that you know Tesla was going to be profitable this quarter and that they were two.
Dollars and ninety cents versus expected loss of seven cents huge huge move on Tesla in terms of their earnings we’ll take a look.
Little bit and then you can see the others Advanced Micro Devices did beat on the bottom line missed on revenues though and not a good looking chart there Merck and Comcast both beat we’re gonna take a look at some of these charts now let’s start off with Microsoft let me show you what’s going on with Microsoft today good news is it’s up more than five dollars more than five percent bad news is it is still struggling at the declining 20-day moving average which we have not.
Been able to clear so short-term it’s a nice bounce I think from a more.
Intermediate term I don’t think it’s enough yet for Microsoft we need to start seeing many of the leaders move back up through that 20-day moving average that’s the way we’re gonna get the major indices through the 20-day moving average unfortunately not doing it just yet on Microsoft ok let’s take a look at visa visa also reported yesterday after the bail and visa.
You can see having a pretty nice day they did come in as as expected in terms of revenues five point four three billion they did beat on the bottom.
Line by a penny a buck twenty one versus a buck 20 and they guided in line all of that nice three percent gain but like Microsoft still trading down below that 20-day moving average got a.
Pretty nice double bottom in so if we could get back through that.
142 143 area that would be nice I think obviously you can see he still has a lot of work to do to get there Tesla like I said big beat on the bottom line they also had a big beat on the top line six point eight two billion versus six point two seven billion a couple things here on Tesla’s chart number one we have gotten back above the twenty.
You can see if the PPO is about to turn positive and some overhead resistance you can see that there was a pretty good gap down in on back in mid-august and.
We struggled on rally attempts to get back through about 325 or so the last time we rallied late September early October we only got up to about 315 so I think all the way up I would say to this gap resistance area may be closer to 335 I think Tesla might be capped in that area a move.
Through that would certainly be very bullish from a technical perspective but I’d maybe see if Tesla settles down a little bit I did like that report though that was a pretty strong report if you can get past all the craziness with Elon Musk then maybe you know what a pullback you can come up.